The Outlook


Welcome to The Outlook archives, where you can view several past issues featuring our investment and economic thinking. The Outlook is available in both PDF* and HTML format. We recommend that you review the PDF format, as it is closer in appearance to our printed version.

November 2016

The World is at an Inflection Point – Update

Outlook Notes – November 14, 2016 Our October 13th Outlook was titled “The World is at an Inflection Point” as we believed that the global anti-establishment sentiment had become so strong that we were closer to major shifts than many had realized. The Trump win combined with the Republican sweep of the Senate and House wasRead the Rest…

October 2016

The World is at an Inflection Point

“Global growth remains weak and fragile… Growth is already being held back by a combination of persistent, interlinked forces – including unfavorable pre-crisis productivity trends, the legacy of high private and sovereign debt, and hysteresis problems… Strong global growth will not return without decisive policy action.”

Global Prospects and Policy Challenges, International Monetary Fund

July 2016

Difficult Economic and Political Choices Lie Ahead

“Future shock is the disorientation that affects an individual, a corporation, or a country when he or it is overwhelmed by change and the prospect of change.”

Alvin Toffler, Futurist and author of the book titled “Future Shock”

April 2016

Building Capital in the “New Mediocre” Global Economy

“The good news is that the recovery continues; we have growth; we are not in a crisis. The not-so-good news is that the recovery remains too slow, too fragile, and risks to its durability are increasing. Certainly, we have made much progress since the great financial crisis. But because growth has been too low for too long, too many people are simply not feeling it. This persistent low growth can be self-reinforcing through negative effects on potential output that can be hard to reverse. The risk of becoming trapped in what I have called a “new mediocre” has increased.”

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, April 5, 2016